GroupM Releases its This Year Next Year 2024 Midyear Global Advertising Forecast

Our 2024 Global Midyear Advertising Forecast explores how external factors spanning technology, culture, government and the economy will impact advertising over the coming months and years. We estimate that global advertising revenue will grow 7.8% in 2024 to $989.8 billion, an upward revision from the 5.3% we forecast in December. The advertising industry is expected to surpass one trillion dollars in revenue in 2025, increasing 6.8% to $1.1 trillion, one year earlier than previously forecast.

Key drivers of the upgraded outlook include revised forecasts for China, now estimated at $199.4 billion in 2024 (up from $148.2 billion from our December forecast), primarily within digital and out-of-home (OOH) advertising. Estimates for the U.S. have also been revised upward to $365.9 billion in 2024, a 5.8% increase over 2023’s $345.9 billion (excluding political advertising). Together, the U.S. and China make up 57.1% of global ad revenue, adding $44.5 billion to their totals in 2024 (excluding U.S. political spending) — nearly 1.5 times the cumulative $27.5 billion in incremental revenue for all other markets combined.

If we exclude both the U.S. and China from the global totals, our forecast for 2024 has risen from 6.5% (in the December 2023 report) to 6.9% now versus the headline increase from 5.3% global growth (from December 2023) to 7.8% including the U.S. and China.

Digital pure-play advertising will account for 70.6% ($699.0 billion) of total ad revenue in 2024, with retail media remaining the fastest growing digital segment. Connected TV (CTV) ad revenue is forecast to reach $38.3 billion in 2024, a 20.1% increase year-over-year.

Other key trends include the growing role of artificial intelligence (AI) and the potential for machine-generated content in advertising. By 2029, AI could inform 94.1% of ad revenue, three years earlier than previously predicted.

Most of our top 10 advertising markets saw upward revisions in growth estimates for 2024 compared to the December forecast, with Brazil and China seeing the largest increases. India was the only top 10 market with a lower growth estimate.

Television, audio, print and cinema advertising are expected to see slower growth or declines, while OOH advertising has rebounded strongly from the pandemic, aided by upward revisions to China estimates. Political advertising is forecast to exceed $16 billion across 24 markets in 2024, with the U.S. accounting for the vast majority. Political advertising revenue in the U.S. will make up 4.1% of the market total in 2024.

Overall, the midyear forecast paints a more optimistic picture for the global advertising industry, driven by digital growth, the recovery of key markets like China, and the accelerating adoption of retail media, CTV advertising, and AI.

Click here for an interactive overview of GroupM’s This Year Next Year 2024 Midyear Forecast